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SARS对中国入境旅游人数影响的研究

A study on the effect of the SARS epidemic on the international tourist arrivals in China

【作者】 朱迎波葛全胜魏小安董培南何连生彭唬

【Author】 ZHU Ying bo 1 , GE Quan sheng 1 , WEI Xiao an 2 , DONG Pei nan 2 , HE Lian sheng 3 , PENG Hu 1 (1 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China; 2 National Tourism Administration, Beijing 100740,China; 3 Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084,China)

【机构】 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所国家旅游局清华大学环境科学与环境工程学院中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京100101北京100101北京100740北京100084北京100101

【摘要】 今年爆发的SARS对中国旅游业冲击很大。本文利用双变量ARIMA模型 ,结合突发事件后人的心理发展变化曲线研究本次突发事件对入境旅游人数的影响。根据同类事件旅游心理恢复期的研究 ,结合中国实际情况 ,笔者讨论了恢复期分别为 1 2、 1 8、 2 4个月时 ,SARS对入境旅游人数的影响。当恢复期为 1 2个月时 ,入境旅游同比增长率平均降幅为 1 7 96 % ,入境旅游人数共减少 2 384 93万人次 ;当恢复期为 1 8个月时 ,入境旅游同比增长率平均降幅为 1 7 0 7% ,入境旅游人数共减少 31 1 7 0 3万人次 ;当恢复期为 2 4个月时 ,入境旅游同比增长率平均降幅为 1 6 5 5 % ,入境旅游人数共减少 385 2 33万人次。

【Abstract】 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) had been widely spread in China since the early days of this year, which badly affected the tourism industry of China The increasing rate of international tourist arrivals to China was -6 28% in March and -31 01% in May, compared with the corresponding period of the last year Bivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to analyze the effect of SARS on the international tourist arrivals to China in this article And the parameter in the model is determined by man’s psychological change Based on the study on the convalescence of similar events, and combined with the situation of China, SARS effect is analyzed under three assumptions: the convalescence may be twelve months, eighteen months and twenty four months after SARS finished separately If the convalescence is twelve months, the increasing rate of international tourist arrivals to China may probably fall 17 96% by average, 40 01% by maximum after the outbreak of SARS, and the international tourist arrivals to China would reduce 23 8493 million on the basis of the model If per capita consumption can maintain the same as before, 4968 million dollars may be lost due to SARS in China If the convalescence is eighteen months, the increasing rate of international tourist arrivals to China may probably fall 17 07% by average, 40 01% by maximum after the outbreak of SARS, and the international tourist arrivals to China would reduce 31 1703 million on the basis of the model If per capita consumption can maintain the same as before, 6493 million dollars may be lost due to SARS in China If the convalescence is twenty four months, the increasing rate of international tourist arrivals to China may probably fall 16 55% by average, 40 01% by maximum after the outbreak of SARS, and the international tourist arrivals to China would reduce 38 5233 million on the basis of the model If per capita consumption can maintain the same as before, 8024 million dollars may be lost due to SARS in China

  • 【文献出处】 地理研究 ,Geographical Research , 编辑部邮箱 ,2003年05期
  • 【分类号】F592
  • 【下载频次】1748
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