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前移回归分析新方法及其在福建人均GDP预测中的应用

A New Method of Forward Regression Analysis and Its Application in Prediction of Per Capita GDP in Fujian Province

【作者】 沈军丁跃潮

【Author】 SHEN Jun~1,DING Yue-chao~2(1.Department of Social Science,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China;2.School of Computer Engineering,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China)

【机构】 集美大学社会科学系集美大学计算机工程学院 福建厦门361021福建厦门361021

【摘要】 介绍一种称为前移回归的时间序列预测新方法,其建立依据是,经济指标是多项相关因素的函数,一个时间段内各项指标(自变量)的值会影响下一时间段待预测指标(因变量)的取值.这种方法克服了以往时间序列预测只是自身拓展而不考虑多项因素(变量)的不足,也弥补了回归分析预测法必须已知同时期各个自变量值才能预测的缺陷.以福建省人均GDP的预测作为实例,取得较好的效果.

【Abstract】 This paper introduces the principle and application of a new forecasting method called forward regression analysis.Taking the prediction of per capita GDP in Fujian Province as an example,it found to be efficient.The method improved previous time series predicting method in which only self-extension is done and multiple factors(variables) are not taken into consideration.Also,it got over the weakness of predicting by general regression analysis which relies on the simultaneous independent variables.An economy indicator is the function of the related economy factors.The indicators(independent variables) in a period may affect the indictor(dependent variable) to be predicted in the next period,which is the basis of the new method.

【基金】 福建省教育厅科技项目(JA004235)
  • 【文献出处】 集美大学学报(自然科学版) ,Journal of Jimei University(Natural Science) , 编辑部邮箱 ,2006年04期
  • 【分类号】F224
  • 【下载频次】383
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