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【作者】 王生凌胜利

【Author】 WANG Sheng;LING Sheng-li;

【机构】 吉林大学行政学院国际政治系外交学院国际关系研究所

【摘要】 朝核问题是影响东北亚安全的重要问题,不过近二十年来国际社会应对朝核问题的努力却效果有限,使得朝核问题愈演愈烈。对此主要存在六方会谈效力不足、美国因素、朝鲜因素、中国因素和中美合作失效五种解释。不过仅仅从体系或单元因素理解朝核问题的演变还稍显不足,而是需要全面考虑朝鲜核政策的内外因素,基于新古典现实主义的视角进行分析:外部因素主要涉及朝韩竞争、多边协调不足、朝鲜半岛安全结构失衡和全球核扩散态势,内部原因包括巩固国内政权、维护国家安全和换取外部援助。对于朝核问题的发展前景,主要取决于朝鲜的核能力和国际社会的应对。在当前朝核问题严峻的形势下,各方都应完整、严格执行安理会涉朝决议,继续坚持半岛无核化的目标,确定"双轨制"分阶段协调推进的和平解决思路,将朝核问题和朝鲜半岛的停和机制转换协调起来共同推进,通过加强中美的有效协调,务实推进朝核问题的解决。

【Abstract】 DPRK nuclear issue is an important issue affecting Northeast Asia security. However,in the past 20 years,the effect of international community response to the DPRK nuclear issue is limited,making the issue even worse. There are five kinds of explanation,such as insufficient six-party talks,the United States factor,DPRK factor,China factor,and the Sino–U.S. cooperation failure. But understanding the evolution of DPRK nuclear issue only from systemic or unit factor is inadequate,the internal and external factors of DPRK’s nuclear policy should be fully considered. In the perspective of neoclassical realism,external factors can be summarized as DPRK-ROK rival,inefficient multilateral coordination,imbalance of the security pattern of the Korean Peninsula,and the tendency of global nuclear diffusion,while internal factors are consolidation of DPRK regime,safeguarding national security,and the pursuit of foreign aids. The nuclear capability of DPRK and the reaction of international community is the key to the future. Relevant parties should never stop the attempt of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Setting up the"double track"to peacefully solve the problem in stages is a new idea. It is necessary to strengthen Sino-U.S. effective coordination and settle the DPRK nuclear issue comprehensively.

【基金】 教育部社科青年项目(15YJCGJW004);吉林大学廉政建设专项研究课题(2015LZY021)
  • 【文献出处】 东北亚论坛 ,Northeast Asia Forum , 编辑部邮箱 ,2016年03期
  • 【分类号】D815.2
  • 【网络出版时间】2016-04-15 14:32
  • 【下载频次】4034
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