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中国基础设施存量的再测算

Revised Estimation of China’s Infrastructure Capital Stock

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【作者】 胡李鹏樊纲徐建国

【Author】 Hu Lipeng;Fan Gang;Xu Jianguo;National School of Development,Peking University;HSBC Business School,Peking University;National Economic Research Institute;

【机构】 北京大学国家发展研究院北京大学汇丰商学院北京国民经济研究所

【摘要】 本文对已有基础设施测算文献中的偏误进行了修正,包括调整统计口径使得2003年前后数据可比,重新估算折旧率和基年的基础设施存量。然后,分析了中国基础设施的现状并讨论了未来基础设施投资的方向。测算结果显示,1978—2014年基础设施投资对GDP增长的贡献率为9.3%。20世纪90年代以后,基础设施存量的增长速度显著快于GDP的增长速度,并且基础设施存量在资本存量中的占比逐年上升,2002年达到最高点后开始下降。东中西的比较显示,西部地区的基础设施投资占比、基础设施在总资本中的占比以及基础设施产出比都显著高于东部和中部。西部地区人均基础设施存量高于中部和东部地区,并且基础设施投资回报率低于中部和东部。在西部地区基础设施存量已经较高,未来人口流出的背景下,应该减少对西部基础设施投资的倾斜。

【Abstract】 We revise the estimation of infrastructure capital stock. The revision includes rectifying the statistic caliber of infrastructure investment so that data before and after 2003 are comparable,and new estimation of depreciation rate and infrastructure capital stock of base year. Based on the new estimation of infrastructure stock,we analyze the status quo ofinfrastructure and the direction of future investment. Our results show that the contribution of infrastructure to GDP growth is 9. 3% from 1978 to 2014. Ever since 1990 s,the growth rate of infrastructure stock is much higher than growth rate of GDP. And the proportion of infrastructure stock in capital stock rose before 2002 but declined after 2002. Growth rate of infrastructure investment,proportion of infrastructure stock in capital stock,and infrastructure product ratio in western China are higher than those in central and eastern China. Infrastructure stock per capita in central China is higher than that in eastern and western China. Considering the high infrastructure stock per capita and decreasing population of western China,more infrastructure should be invested in eastern and central China.

【基金】 教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“城乡一体化发展与土地管理制度改革研究”(项目批准号:13JZD008)的支持
  • 【文献出处】 经济研究 ,Economic Research Journal , 编辑部邮箱 ,2016年08期
  • 【分类号】F283
  • 【下载频次】2703
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