节点文献

人口与市场因素对海洋渔业消费品影响的仿真分析──以舟山市为例

A Simulation Study of the Effects of Population and Market Factors on the Marine Fishery Consumption: Case of Zhoushan

【作者】 陆杰华王广州李建新蔡文媚

【Author】 Lu Jiehua, born in 1960, is a Ph. D in demography, Institute of Population Research, Peking University; Wang Guangzhou, born in 1965, is a Ph. D in demography, School of Management, Institute of Haerbin Technology; Li Jian xin, born in 1962, is a Ph.D in

【机构】 北京大学人口研究所哈尔滨工业大学管理学院北京大学社会学系

【摘要】 本文以舟山为例 ,构建了人口变化、海洋消费需求与海洋生产的系统模拟框架 ,并利用系统动力学的方法 ,选择海水养殖、价格指数以及旅游人口三个对人口、海洋消费与生产系统产生重要影响的因素进行了仿真政策分析。结果表明 ,对海水养殖生产投入的增加不但可以满足人们持续增长的海洋水产品的需求 ,而且可以保证海洋渔业资源的可持续发展 ;此外 ,海产品价格指数的高低以及旅游人口的增加同样影响着海洋渔业消费品市场。

【Abstract】 Taking Zhoushan as a study case, this paper first of all establishes a simulating framework of population changes, demand for marine consumption, and fishery productions. Then, by using system dynamic method, it makes some policy simulating studies through selections of mariculture, price indexes, and tourist population, which are often granted as the major determinants that affect population, seafood consumption, and fishery productions. Our findings turn out that the increase in investment of mariculture will not only meet the increasing demand for seafood, but also achieve the sustainable development of living fishery resources in Zhoushan. In addition, the price indexes and tourist population will have the substantial impacts on the seafood market.

【基金】 台湾中流文教基金奖助金;美国MacArthur基金会 (项目编号为 0 0 - 65430 )的资助
  • 【文献出处】 人口研究 ,Population Research , 编辑部邮箱 ,2001年04期
  • 【分类号】F326.4
  • 【下载频次】346
节点文献中: 

本文链接的文献网络图示:

本文的引文网络
网页聊天
live chat
在线营销
live chat