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商业建筑初期灭火系统分析与决策

Analysis and Strategic Decision of Extinguishments System at the Initial Stage of Fire in Commercial Buildings

【作者】 闫金花张兴国李慧民杨茂盛

【Author】 YAN Jin-hua1,ZHANG Xing-guo1,LI Hui-min2,YANG Mao-sheng2(1.College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400045,P.R.China;2.Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi’an 710055,P.R.China)

【机构】 重庆大学建筑城规学院西安建筑科技大学西安建筑科技大学 重庆400045重庆400045陕西西安710055

【摘要】 初期灭火是遏制商业建筑火灾的最佳时机,针对商业建筑火灾初期灭火过程中出现的问题,构建系统模型进行分析。数据来源于我国商业建筑特大火灾案例,采用贝叶斯统计分析方法进行分析,克服了火灾数据缺乏、且难以进行大量重复实验的困难,得到参数的条件期望估计与方差。通过对系统故障树的分析,得到我国商业建筑火灾初期灭火失败概率的期望与方差,并对参数引起的误差进行系统误差传播分析,最后进行系统决策。

【Abstract】 The best chance to extinguish the fire in commercial buildings is at the initial stage of a fire.For the problems during extinguishments at the initial stage of fire,a fire extinguishment system model at initial stage of fire in commercial buildings is designed.The fire data come from the fire cases in Chinese commercial buildings.The expected value and Variance of probability of basic events are calculated by using Bayesian statistical analysis method,which has overcome the difficulty from inefficient fire datum and obtaining repeated fire experience.Then the failure probability of extinguishments system at initial stage of fire is concluded from fault tree analysis and the error propagation analysis of fault tree is made.A systematic strategic decision has been made finally.

  • 【文献出处】 重庆建筑大学学报 ,Journal of Chongqing Jianzhu University , 编辑部邮箱 ,2007年01期
  • 【分类号】TU998.12
  • 【下载频次】123
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